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AlphaPro Sentiment Score Predicted Two S&P 500 Winners

AlphaPro Editorial4 min read

Happy Monday! For U.S. stocks, there seems to be only one way: up. The S&P 500 just closed its best week since August. Even as regional bank stocks came under pressure amid concerns over rising bad loans, broader indices managed to regain momentum.

Investor sentiment turned slightly more positive after President Donald Trump hinted that upcoming tariffs on Chinese goods may not be as steep as initially feared. Markets are digesting the news as a potential easing of trade-related uncertainty. For the week, the Dow rose 1.6%, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, and the Nasdaq advanced 2.1% in the strongest stretch since early August, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown enters Day 20, with lawmakers still unable to reach an agreement. It is now the third-longest funding lapse in modern history, surpassed only by those of 1995 and 2018-19.

On the earnings front, the Q3 earnings season has kicked off strongly. Early reports are setting the tone for corporate performance. Investors are closely watching how companies are navigating inflation, supply chain pressures, and demand trends. Early Q3 reports highlight a solid start, as strength in key sectors more than offsets lingering headwinds.

And gold continues to make headlines. The metal rose 1.2% on Friday to as much as $4,379.93 per ounce, marking its biggest weekly gain since 2008 and extending a rally that began in August.

This week, we are tracking three key stories:

  • Two S&P 500 stocks that surged after AlphaPro's Earnings Sentiment Score jumped
  • Morning shows the day: Q3 earnings start strong
  • The AI-driven rally still has steam: TSMC raises 2025 outlook

Let's take a closer look…

AlphaPro's sentiment score gives you a single actionable data point that captures the overall sentiment in a company's earnings call. Moreover,

In the latest quarter, two companies stood out for how sharply their sentiment scores rose and how their stock prices followed:

1. First Solar (FSLR)

  • Market Cap: $24.87B
  • Sentiment Score: +30 pts (41 → 71)
  • Stock Price: +39.9% (July 31 → Oct 15, 2025)

2. Teradyne (TER)

  • Market Cap: $21.98B
  • Sentiment Score: +27 pts (65 → 92)
  • Stock Price: +27.4% (July 30 → Oct 14, 2025)

The Q3 earnings season is off to a steady start. So far, according to FactSet data, 12% of S&P 500 companies have reported results and 86% beat EPS estimates, above both 5-year (78%) and 10-year (75%) averages.

In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings 5.9% above expectations, slightly below the longer-term average beat of around 8%.

Early reports from the financial giants set the tone:

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Net income up 12% YoY to $14.4B
  • Goldman Sachs (GS): Revenue up 20%, net income up 37%, powered by dealmaking and trading activity.
  • BlackRock (BLK): EPS at $11.55, revenue up 25%
  • Wells Fargo (WFC): Net income up 9%, revenue up 5%

If consensus holds, S&P 500 earnings per share should rise 7.9% in Q3, the ninth straight quarter of growth, though slower than the 12% jump last quarter (FactSet).

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) reported 39% year-over-year profit growth in Q3, driven by sustained demand for AI chips. The company raised its 2025 revenue forecast for the second time this year and now expects mid-30% annual sales growth

TSMC has been a major beneficiary of the AI boom, manufacturing cutting-edge processors that power the technologies of clients like Nvidia and AMD. said TSMC CEO C.C. Wei during the earnings call.

He noted that growing consumer adoption of AI models is driving higher demand for computing power and, in turn, for semiconductors. he added. TSMC's earnings sentiment score went up by 17 points to reach 94 following the earnings call.

Upcoming Reports: Eyes are on Tesla and Netflix this week. Tesla's numbers may show a small EPS dip but rising revenue, with a focus on its robotaxi rollout. Netflix is expected to post strong growth, powered by its ad-supported tier.

Keep an eye on our Earnings Calendar.

Before we sign-off

Markets move not just on data, but on how investors interpret them. In each of the stories we cover, it all comes down to market expectations and sentiment. When sentiment runs ahead of fundamentals, what follows is volatility.

At AlphaPro, we track the voice behind the numbers and tone of earnings calls, policy speeches, and analyst commentary. Our Earnings Sentiment Score helps you cut through the noise and see how executives and policymakers are shaping narratives in real time.

Same time next week? See you then.

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